If you have your retirement parked in traditional 401k, mutual funds, asset allocation funds or index ETFs, you may soon find it at the bottom of a lot of rubble... is this the month?
Could energy/XLE have one more flush ahead before it is a more compelling buy? Some of the individual names are beginning to waterfall down...APA COP MUR etc
Lower prices? Yes. If bank liquidity freezes and there is mass rapid unwinding. But, the underlying fundamentals say invest in production (from a company perspective). Rig count isn't flying yet, but the pieces are in motion. Smart thing is to dollar cost average and use sound TA to find entries. Accumulate on producers first.
I’m no expert in the industry, but a general understanding… Pipeline (delivery) are midstream. Upstream includes development, exploration, production. Development heavily subcontracts services (service companies), very capital intensive. Downstream are product refining… gas, plastic, chems, rubber etc. the big boys (XLE) are integrated (diversified) across these to varying degrees. Midstream is very contract intensive and less impacted by price fluctuations. Oil price is feedstock for downstream, so lower is preferred. Higher is better for upstream.
Could energy/XLE have one more flush ahead before it is a more compelling buy? Some of the individual names are beginning to waterfall down...APA COP MUR etc
Lower prices? Yes. If bank liquidity freezes and there is mass rapid unwinding. But, the underlying fundamentals say invest in production (from a company perspective). Rig count isn't flying yet, but the pieces are in motion. Smart thing is to dollar cost average and use sound TA to find entries. Accumulate on producers first.
The producers as a separate group from the pipeline companies?
I’m no expert in the industry, but a general understanding… Pipeline (delivery) are midstream. Upstream includes development, exploration, production. Development heavily subcontracts services (service companies), very capital intensive. Downstream are product refining… gas, plastic, chems, rubber etc. the big boys (XLE) are integrated (diversified) across these to varying degrees. Midstream is very contract intensive and less impacted by price fluctuations. Oil price is feedstock for downstream, so lower is preferred. Higher is better for upstream.
I kind of like the idea of midstream for the scenario of higher volume but relatively contained oil prices
Yes they are well structured to provide a nice fixed income portfolio.