3/15/2024 - Weekly Goodies

On Thesis. Constructive Setups.

Highest Quality Junior Silver/Gold Producers

SilverCrest - Good earnings, cash flowing 2023 at average sale price just under $20. Breaking out, month still needs to close.

Aya - extremely constructive. One of the few silver companies that held up over the last 18 months. They have been building out production in their Zgounder mine and have an impressively low AISC and wide margins. Cash flowing at current silver prices. There is a non greedy setup to $8. I have $13.95 in my notes from Sprott.

Dundee - Gold producer primarily Bulgaria. I have $19 in my most recent DCF valuation in my notes but I expect the foreign discount to make that a bit greedy. Chart gives us a view of more like $15 on the OTC stock DPMLF. Good company, making money, paying a dividend, breaking out.

Oil and Gas

DMLP - Royalty LP. Valuation best estimate is $41.

Breaking out of its penant. Not a lot of room to run in the current view, but its still primarily an NG royality play, so fundamentals can firm up. Also, 12% dividends.

EPD, another dividend maching breaking up. Probably don’t get a target above the ATH of $40. Not super attractive as a trade, but attractive as a buy/hold dividend play. This is a good candidate for covered call premium as well.

SM Energy - I have my targets at $60, but a nice head and shoulders has come it to play that projects to $75. In either case, this stock looks ready to move.

Crescent Point - CPG

I have fair value at $10. But higher natural gas prices will juice this guy.

He’s breaking out on his bull flag on the chart. My first target is $17. I have work to do to project his BOE relative to my expectations from the primary market prices. This will be an interesting close.

CNQ - big cap Alberta O&G play. I have a valuation BE of $80. Technical level is $110. I intend to do more proforma analysis of their production profile against primary market movements. Stock looks constructive.

DVN - Devon energy. He’s just getting out of his triangle. I think the fundamentals support the extended target of $125, if we see an oil break out and NG continue to improve. This guy looks like he wants to continue the bull pole move.

Copper

COPX - fantastic looking chart. Base metal is breaking out. We have an early target of $60 with extended targets of $90.

SCCO - Southern Copper - This guy is already on his run. Pretty late to enter, but a big cap with violent upside potential. Thats the copper market.